Friday, February 24, 2012

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

Though news of Dwight continues to dominate the trade rumor mill, there are some smaller moves being pushed around that could shuffle current playoff rankings.

Rasheed Wallace has been rumored to be coming out of retirement to join the Lakers. This will allow the Lakers to add front court depth. Enough for them to feel more comfortable to trade Pau Gasol. A potential Pau Gasol for Luis Scola and Kevin Martin deal could be discussed. This will allow the Lakers to maintain front court presence while adding a versatile scoring guard (who has been rumored to be upset in Houston). Meanwhile, the Rockets will receive a player they have clearly coveted since the botched trade in December.

The Raptors are apparently fielding offers for Jose Calderon. A possible trade with Portland could make sense. Jose Calderon for Raymond Felton, Elliot Williams, and Nolan Smith. Portland has been unsatisfied with Felton's dismal play, so acquiring a steady point guard is first on the priority list. Meanwhile, Felton might be able to rejuvenate his career in Toronto, but if not, he will be a unrestricted free agent at the end of this year, providing salary cap relief. In Williams and Smith, the Raptors also receive two former Dukies who have the potential to become solid contributors at very cheap prices.

Though Nash has not asked the Suns to trade him, there is enough good will between him and management to offer a ray of hope for the stellar point guard to be traded to a legitimate contender. As Dwight's trade demands have affected Jameer Nelson's play, it seems plausible that the Magic will consider moving the guard. A Steve Nash for Jameer Nelson and Daniel Orton deal might not seem too ridiculous. Given that Nash will probably join a contender next year anyways, the Suns are able to use him on his way out to acquire a point guard who was playing at an All Star level a mere 3 seasons ago. Likewise, the Magic acquire a point guard who can form a devastating pick-and-roll combo with Howard. Since Nash's contract expires at the end of the year, the Magic are able to free up an addition $11MM from their books, which they can use to make a play at Deron Williams (who Dwight has been known to want to play with).

(Edit: Apparently the Magic have decided to aggressively pursue Nash.)

These are some interesting scenarios, but it is truly hard to predict what will happen. Only time will tell how these trade rumors play out.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Blockbuster Resurgence

The hottest rumors this trade season involve the malcontent Dwight Howard. Though the last post detailed moves made by the Rockets to make a play at Dwight, this post will involve something a little different: Dwight actually being traded.

Here is the trade proposal:
Lakers Receive:
Amare Stoudemire
Michael Beasley

Timberwolves Receive:
Pau Gasol
Matt Barnes
DeAndre Liggins

Magic Receive:
Derrick Williams
Nikola Pekovic
Wesley Johnson
1st Round Pick from Utah (via Minnesota)
1st Round Pick from Dallas (via Los Angeles)

Knicks Receive:
Dwight Howard

Though this megadeal may not involve the most players in history, it definitely has enough star power to be the biggest in history.

The Lakers will receive Stoudemire and Beasley. Since Pau Gasol is mentioned in almost as many trade rumors as Dwight is and with the botched CP3 trade earlier this year, the Lakers seem likely to part with the trustworthy Spaniard. In return, they get a capable scorer in Stoudemire, who possesses a similar, albeit more athletic, game to Gasol. Though Stoudemire has been mired with knee problems in previous years, he has been playing relatively injury free the past couple of years. In Beasley, the Lakers also receive a player who can provide offense from the small forward role, something they've sorely missed with the trade of Odom and the regression of World Peace. For the price of Gasol, the Lakers are able to get younger and more athletic, something that will surely help in the playoffs of a shortened season.

(Edit: New rumors have surfaced about the Lakers being interested in Beasley.)

The Timberwolves seem very interested in pairing Gasol with the Spanish sensation, Ricky Rubio. Gasol is likely seen as the veteran presence needed to help the young, but talented Timberwolves, take the next step into the playoffs. Derrick Williams has not panned out the way the T'Wolve fans had hoped. Nor has Weasley Johnson, the 4th pick of the 2010 Draft. Losing Pekovic, who has been playing very well in the past few weeks, will be easier to swallow with the addition of the very capable Gasol.

The Magic have recently considered keeping Dwight at the risk of losing him in free agency. However, saddled with hefty contracts to Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, this "idea" seems like nothing more that a ploy to create leverage in any deal for Dwight. In return for Superman, the Magic will receive 3 very young players who can serve as their foundation. Derrick Williams, though inconsistent in Minnesota, might fare better with a change of scenery. He was touted as the most complete player in his draft class and does have the potential to explode. Johnson has been around a year longer than Williams, but like Williams, is a high draft pick that has underperformed in Minnesota. A change of scenery might also serve him well. The real gem for the Magic will be Pekovic, who has been absolutely dominant the past month and has the potential to be the next great Magic center. He will provide a young piece that might fit the Magic better than the banged up Brook Lopez. The Timberwolves and Lakers can also offer the Magic two first round picks (from Utah and Dallas) that the Magic could package with Derrick Williams to shoot for a higher draft pick or a star player.

The Knicks have been long rumored to want to swing Stoudemire for the prize of the 2012 NBA Free Agency class. Needing to only give up Stoudemire to achieve this will be a welcomed surprise. A rotation of Dwight, Tyson, Carmelo, and Jeremy will be a formidable force for anyone to reckon with in the playoffs.

This trade could prove beneficial to all parties and really pave the way for playoff runs both in the present and future.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Where will Superman lift off next?

It seems that Kobe Bryant’s ego will prevent the Lakers from winning another title. While Dwight Howard envisioned “forming a devastating one-two punch with Bryant,” Kobe had other plans, reportedly telling Howard he would play third fiddle behind himself (Kobe) and Pau Gasol. Dwight was, unsurprisingly, turned off by the idea.

Now begs the question where will Superman land? With one of his top destinations seemingly crossed off, sources close to Dwight say he will sign with either the Nets or the Magic. His reason for signing with the Nets? The opportunity to play with Deron Williams.

            Lacking  pieces to trade outright for Dwight, the Nets must somehow convince Deron to sign an extension with them AND hope Dwight comes to them. However, both are tall tasks since the Nets have stumbled hard this year.

            Enter the Rockets. The Rockets are teetering in mediocrity. With no viable superstars or attractions, the Rockets seem inevitably destined to go nowhere. This is the perfect opportunity for them to pounce. Though they probably lack the pieces to trade for the Magic star, they have enough pieces to intrigue the Nets. Kyle Lowry has been playing the best ball of his career this year, garnering enough support among fans that there have been cries of foul over his All-Star “snub.” Kevin Martin is still young and playing well enough to be labeled a star of sorts. With the lack of a guaranty on Deron, the Nets will definitely have to think hard about this trade.

Rockets Receive:

Nets Receive:

The Rockets will receive Deron Williams, whom they can hopefully convince to exercise his Player Option. They will also receive an old Mehmet Okur, who will become a free agent this year, and Sheldon Williams, whose contract also expires after this season. With $10MM (from Okur), $5MM (from Thabeet), and $3MM (from the trade) coming off the books, the Rockets have enough wiggle room to sign Dwight Howard this upcoming summer. Of course it is important to note that if Deron leaves, then the Rockets will have be rebuild, (probably something they should’ve started doing earlier).

The Nets will receive a great point guard, Kyle Lowry, a very good scorer, Kevin Martin, a good post player, Luis Scola, and some young guys they can potentially use as building blocks or trade pieces. This will allow them to decrease their risk of losing Deron for nothing. Both Lowry and Martin have manageable contracts, with the one sore point being Luis Scola’s contract. However, given their own first round pick this year, plus New York and Houston’s (from previous trade) first round picks, they can build their team through the draft with pieces to complement Lopez, Lowry, Martin, and Scola.

Right now, projected by current records, the Nets own the 4th pick, the Knicks own the 10th pick, and the Rockets own the 20th pick. The Nets could use these picks to pack for a higher pick for a shot at Anthony Davis (the consensus #1pick in the draft), or they could just draft 3 players. Right now based on Mock Drafts (1,2,3), it seems that these players are reasonable at their current spots:

4th pick – Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jared Sullinger
10th pick – Perry Jones, John Henson, Kendall Marshall, Tyler Zeller, Terrence Jones
20th pick – Fab Melo, Marquis Teague, Kris Joseph, Mason Plumlee, Austin Rivers

            With a lot of depth in this upcoming draft, it makes sense for the Nets to capitalize on the wealth of picks that could be available to them.

This trade would allow the Rockets to potentially add 2 superstars and allow the Nets to rebuild in a way they couldn’t if they lost Deron through free agency. The risk reward factor of this trade is sky high for both teams.